Sustainable Aviation, the UK cross-industry group comprising airlines, airports, aerospace manufacturers and air navigation services, has published its 2026 Decarbonisation Road-Map, updating the 2023 edition with revised scenario modelling and adjusted technology contributions toward the industry's net zero 2050 target.

Sustainable Aviation's membership includes British Airways, easyJet, Ryanair, Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Heathrow, Gatwick and NATS, alongside approximately 50 other organisations across the UK aviation supply chain. 

The 2026 roadmap's central scenario holds that sustainable aviation fuel will account for 65% of total aviation fuel use by 2050, with lifecycle emissions savings of approximately 80% and a contribution of around 31% of total decarbonisation. The remaining reductions are allocated to fleet renewal (20%), demand moderation (15%), airspace and operational improvements (4%) and greenhouse gas removals at the margin. SAF prices have risen since the 2023 roadmap while GGR costs have fallen, shifting the mix toward greater GGR contribution.

The structural driver is a policy gap between the industry's ambition and the UK government's current legislative trajectory. The SAF Mandate, which came into force in 2025, requires 2% SAF in UK jet fuel rising to 10% by 2030 and 22% by 2040. The roadmap assumes 65% SAF penetration by 2050, a significantly higher trajectory, and explicitly acknowledges this reflects voluntary purchases above mandated levels and an expectation of broader feedstock availability over time. 

The UK government launched a £219 million Low Carbon Fuels Fund in June 2026, with £93 million available to near-commercial SAF projects, alongside a call for evidence on the SAF mandate's non-HEFA supply trajectory. That policy machinery is nascent rather than settled, and the industry is running ahead of it.

The 2026 roadmap's actual emissions data between 2005 and 2024, passenger numbers up 28%, absolute emissions down 1%, emissions per passenger down 22%, is the most commercially significant disclosure in the document, providing the empirical basis for the industry's argument that growth and decarbonisation are compatible rather than contradictory.

For the sector, the SAF trajectory is directly relevant to Aer Lingus, Ryanair and daa, all of which operate UK routes subject to the SAF Mandate and will face increasing blending costs as the mandate trajectory rises toward 2030.

Source: greenairnews.com / sustainableaviation.co.uk / flightglobal.com / ukaviation.aero